Orange Beach, Ala. – (OBA) – Experts are warning that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could be one of the most active on record. According to the latest forecast from the Colorado State University (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project, the 2024 season is expected to see 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).

This prediction would make the 2024 season the third most active on record in terms of named storms, the fifth most active for hurricanes, and the ninth most active for major hurricanes.

The team at CSU also forecasts an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index of 210, which is 171% of the 1991-2020 average. Developed as the Hurricane Destruction Potential (HDP) index in 1988 by William Gray and his associates, the ACE index is used to compare overall activity of tropical cyclones

The key factors driving this year’s active forecast are:

• Transition from El Niño to La Niña
• Forecasters expect the current El Niño weather pattern to weaken and transition to a La Niña by the peak of hurricane season.
• La Niña conditions typically lead to reduced wind shear in the Atlantic, which can allow more hurricanes to form and strengthen.
• Warm Atlantic Ocean Temperatures
• Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico are expected to be above average in 2024, providing abundant fuel for hurricane development.
• Warmer ocean temperatures are a primary driver of hurricane activity.

Increased Landfall Probabilities

The CSU forecast also indicates an elevated risk of major hurricane landfalls in 2024. The team estimates a 62% chance of at least one major hurricane hitting the U.S. coastline, compared to the long-term average of 43%.

The probabilities are even higher for specific regions, with a 34% chance for the East Coast/Florida Peninsula and a 42% chance for the Gulf Coast.

Preparedness is Key

Given the predictions for the 2024 hurricane season, NOAA is urging all residents in hurricane-prone areas to get prepared well in advance.

This includes…

• Having an emergency plan
• Securing your home 
• Stocking up on essential supplies 

It is crucial that everyone stay informed on the latest forecasts and heeding all watches and warnings.

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30, but the season could start earlier than usual given the warm ocean temperatures.

Coastal communities and energy companies that operate in the Gulf of Mexico will need to be on high alert and ready to respond to potential impacts.

Click here for a list of tips on how to prepare for Hurricane Season.