Orange Beach, Ala. — (OBA) —  A low-pressure system over the northeastern Gulf of America is organizing and could become a tropical depression by Sunday evening or Monday, the National Hurricane Center said in its 8 a.m. EDT advisory on Sunday, July 19, 2026. The NHC placed the probability of formation at 80 percent within 48 hours, as the system moves slowly northward or northwestward. Forecaster Cangialosi noted that tropical storm watches or warnings may be issued for portions of the northern Gulf Coast later Sunday. Residents along the coasts of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana are urged to monitor the system's progress, as heavy rainfall is expected across the region over the next several days.

Tropical Weather Outlook from the NWS National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL

800 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

For the North Atlantic… Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Northern Gulf of America and near Florida (AL91):

An area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf of America continues to become better defined and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is gradually increasing.  Continued gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or on Monday as the system moves slowly northward or northwestward.  Interests along the northern Gulf coast from Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana should monitor the progress of this system, as tropical storm watches or warnings could be required for portions of the area later today.  In addition, this system is expected to bring heavy rains to portions of the northern Gulf coast during the next several days.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the low pressure area later today.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi