⚠️ KEY CHANGES: The Flash Flood Watch now includes Choctaw and Clarke Counties in Alabama. The flooding rain threat continues to increase across parts of southeast Mississippi. Coastal Flood Advisory and High Surf Warning run through Tuesday.

⚠️ IMPACTS: Here's what we know...

☔RAIN/INLAND FLOODING: The flooding rain threat continues to increase across parts of southeast Mississippi. Potential for MAJOR to EXTREME flooding across southeast Mississippi. Heavy rain and flooding are likely through Monday morning, especially southeast Mississippi where 4-8" of rain is forecast (isolated totals up to 10 inches possible). Further east, we could see 4-6" in coastal Alabama and 2-3" of rain across northwest Florida. FLASH FLOOD WATCH was expanded further into southwest Alabama. The WATCH continues tor all of southeast Mississippi, parts of southwest Alabama, and northwest Florida.

🌊BEACHES: HIGH risk of rip currents will persist through early next week. High Surf Warning for dangerous 9-12 foot breakers extended through Monday night.

🌊COASTAL FLOODING: 3 feet inundation in northern Mobile Bay, 2-3 feet inundation across coastal Alabama, and 1-3 feet inundation across northwest Florida today and Monday at the time of high tide (10am-2pm). The highest inundation will occur across coastal Alabama on Monday morning. We could see coastal flood issues linger into Tuesday morning. Some of the locations of greatest risk are the west end of Dauphin Island, Causeway over Mobile Bay, immediate shores of rivers that feed into Mobile Bay, low-lying coastal roads in Bayou La Batre and Coden, and the Ft Pickens area. There will be some flooding likely on the Causeway today with more significant flooding on Monday.

🌬️WIND: No major changes. Strongest winds are expected this afternoon. Tropical storm-force winds will most likely arrive early this morning along the coast and late this morning across southeast Mississippi. Winds start to diminish late tonight, but gusty southerly winds will continue along the coast.

🌪️TORNADO: No major changes. Conditions are becoming increasingly favorable for a few tornadoes mainly this afternoon and tonight. The greatest potential for a few tornadoes remains across southeast Mississippi, extreme southwest Alabama, and northwest Florida. Make sure you have a plan and have multiple ways to receive warnings, especially with the possibility of tornadoes while you sleep.

💻LOCAL TROPICAL INFO: www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=mob (bookmark it!)

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👉IN-DEPTH DISCUSSION:

The convection near the center of Cristobal remains limited, although it has become a little better organized during the past several hours. In addition, aircraft and scatterometer data show that the radius of maximum winds remains at or above 90 n mi.

The initial motion is north at 10 kt between a deep-layer ridge to Cristobal's east and a mid- to upper-level trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. This general motion should continue for 12-18 hours, followed by a turn toward the north-northwest due to a mid-latitude ridge passing north of the cyclone. After 36 hours, a turn toward the north and north-northeast is expected as Cristobal or its remnants encounter the mid-latitude westerlies. There are no important changes to either the track guidance or the forecast track since the last advisory.

The broad nature of the cyclone and significant dry air entrainment is likely to prevent intensification before landfall, and the new intensity forecast holds the intensity constant at 45 kt until that time. Cristobal remains a broad and asymmetric storm. Therefore, one should not focus on the exact forecast track, as the associated winds, storm surge, and rainfall will extend well away the center.